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Paper w78-1993-13:
Beterministic management decision making using forecasting models

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Khosrowshahi F

Beterministic management decision making using forecasting models

Abstract: It is widely accepted that forecasting is an activity essential to management decision making. Forecasting models are extensively used by the management to assist evaluation of project fmmcial viability and its resulting financial commitments and capabilities. Furthermore, these models are used at the corpsrate level with wider implications. However, it appears that often, the forecasting models are either used as a procedural necessity without much faith in their outcome or, they are used fatalistically where the outcome is accepted on the whole. This paper attempts to extend the boundaries of the applications of forecasting models and asserts that the pro-active management should be able to take a progressive attitude towards the concept of forecasting and exploit it as a tool for deterministic, rather than fatalistic decision and policy making. This paper is concerned with the above notions primarily in the context of forecasting models for construction project cash flow. To this end, the paper introduces TASC - a mathematically based model - the structure and various features of which, accommodate the implementation of the above concept.



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Series: w78:1993 (browse)
Cluster: papers of the same cluster (result of machine made clusters)
Class: class.impact (0.013056)
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Permission to reproduce these papers has been graciously provided by the National University of Singapore. The assistance of the editors, particularly Prof. Martin Betts, is gratefully appreciated.


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