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Paper: w78-1998-3
| Paper title: | Computer aided strategic planning |
| Authors: | Alarcon L F, Bastias A |
| Summary: | Modelling concepts developed to analyse project strategic decisions have been extended and implemented in a computer system leading to a generalised methodology that allows modelling and evaluation of strategic decisions in almost any decision area. Some recent application areas of this modelling system are: strategic planning, evaluation of environmental policy impacts and evaluation of risks in owner contractor relationships . The system uses concepts of cross-impact analysis and probabilistic inference as the core of the analysis procedure. A modular model structure and a simplified knowledge acquisition procedure has been designed to avoid the excessive cognitive demands imposed to the users by the original cross-impact methodology. A simple questioning process is used to guide the discussion and elicit information in an ordered manner. The result is a powerful but easy to use computer modelling system where managers, or other potential users, are not exposed to the complexities of the mathematical model. The computer system is implemented in a Windows 95 platform and it provides a graphical interface to help the users in building a conceptual model for the decision problem. The model is a simplified structure of the variables and interactions that influence the decisions being analysed. Influences and interactions assessed by experts or decisions makers are stored in a knowledge base. The system provides powerful analysis capabilities, such as: sensitivity analysis, to identify the most important variables in the decision problem; scenario analysis, to test decision under different environmental conditions; prediction of selected performance outcomes; risk analysis, to identify the risk involved in different alternatives; comparative analysis of the effects of alternative actions on individual or combined performance measures; explanatory capabilities through the model causal structure; etc. The computer model can translate expertise collected from multiple experts into a prediction of significant outcomes for decision-making. The model allows management to test different combinations of options and predict expected performance impacts associated with the decisions under analysis. The use of this decision-support tool can provide valuable insights on alternative options for strategic decision-making |
| Type: | |
| Year of publication: | 1998 |
| Series: | w78:1998 |
| ISSN: | 2706-6568 |
| Download paper: | /pdfs/w78-1998-3.content.pdf |
| Citation: | Alarcon L F, Bastias A (1998). Computer aided strategic planning. Bjork B C, Jagbecj A (ed.); The life-cycle of construction IT innovations. - Technology transfer from research to practice. [ Conference Proceedings / ISBN 91-7171-281-4] Stockholm (Sweden) 3-5 June 1998 (ISSN: 2706-6568), http://itc.scix.net/paper/w78-1998-3 |
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